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Inferring cause
Explanations > Social Research > Drawing conclusions > Inferring cause Hume's temporal regularity | Mill's induction | Cook and Campbell's three criteria | See also
In social research the discovery of correlation, when two variables change at the same time is not proof of cause. Here are notes Hume's temporal regularity18th century philosopher David Hume described three basic conditions that are necessary for cause and effect to be inferred:
This is a good first attempt, but can be challenged:
A key issue here is that there can be multiple causes which have to occur in sequences or together for effects to happen. For example a mosquito bite does not kill the person directly -- it is the disease that does this, and it may only happen if the person is already weakened. Another problem is that just because A follows B it need not happen next time. For example when a mosquito bites another person, they may not fall ill and die. This leads to experiments to determine the detail of causality. Mill's inductionIn the 19th century, utilitarian John Stuart Mill adapted Hume's rules as follows:
The third rule is typical of police methods, where elimination of suspects leads inexorably to the perpetrator of a crime (nobody else here could have done it, so it must be the butler!). Mill described three methods of inferring cause:
In other words, if you take a situation and change only the cause or do not change the cause, then the effect should correspondingly happen or not happen. This requires two experiments, one with the cause present and one without. What this calls for and which makes good science is the use of controlled experiments. Cook and Campbell's three criteriaCook and Campbell (1979) propose three conditions that must be met before a cause-effect relation can be inferred:
Experimental structureExperiments to prove cause and effect therefore need to:
See also
Cook, T.D. and Campbell, D.T. (1979). Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis for Field Settings. Rand McNally, Chicago, Illinois |
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Main sections: | Disciplines | Techniques | Principles | Explanations | Theories | |
Other sections: | Blog! | Quotes | Guest articles | Analysis | Books | Help | |
More pages: | Contact | Caveat | About | Students | Webmasters | Awards | Guestbook | Feedback | Sitemap | Changes | |
Settings: | Computer layout | Mobile layout | Small font | Medium font | Large font | Translate | |
| Home | Top | Menu | Quick Links | |
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