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Overconfidence Barrier

 

Explanations > Theories > Overconfidence Barrier

Description | Research | Example | So What? | See also | References 

 

Description

We tend to have too much confidence in the accuracy of our own judgments. As we find out more about a situation, the accuracy of our judgments may well not increase, but our confidence will, as we equate quantity with quality. Confidence also tends to increase if we are given incentives to perform well.

Overconfidence is greatest when accuracy is near chance levels, and reduces as accuracy increases from 50% to 80%. Once accuracy exceeds 80%, people become under-confident.

Related to this, in what has been called the 'God Complex', we tend to believe that we know the answer to complicated problems. This can be seen in daily gossip where individuals confidently propose solutions to world issues.

Research

Fischhoff, Slovic and Lichtenstein (1977) gave subjects a general knowledge test and then asked them how sure they were of their answer. Subjects reported being 100% sure when they were actually only 70%-80% correct.

Example

Teachers sometimes decide that some individuals and groups are more intelligent than others. This can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So what?

Using it

Ask the other person something they don’t know about. Then use their over-confidence. Or take something they know and lever the seeds of doubt as to the absolute accuracy.

Defending

When making a judgment, stop to consider the reasons why you may be wrong. Practice this. Before long, you confidence will more closely match the accuracy of your decisions.

See also

Selective Perception, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Personal Validation Fallacy, Valence Effect

References

Fischhoff, Slovic and Lichtenstein (1977), Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1977)

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Site Menu

| Home | Top | Quick Links | Settings |

Main sections: | Disciplines | Techniques | Principles | Explanations | Theories |

Other sections: | Blog! | Quotes | Guest articles | Analysis | Books | Help |

More pages: | Contact | Caveat | About | Students | Webmasters | Awards | Guestbook | Feedback | Sitemap | Changes |

Settings: | Computer layout | Mobile layout | Small font | Medium font | Large font | Translate |

 

 

Please help and share:

 

Quick links

Disciplines

* Argument
* Brand management
* Change Management
* Coaching
* Communication
* Counseling
* Game Design
* Human Resources
* Job-finding
* Leadership
* Marketing
* Politics
* Propaganda
* Rhetoric
* Negotiation
* Psychoanalysis
* Sales
* Sociology
* Storytelling
* Teaching
* Warfare
* Workplace design

Techniques

* Assertiveness
* Body language
* Change techniques
* Closing techniques
* Conversation
* Confidence tricks
* Conversion
* Creative techniques
* General techniques
* Happiness
* Hypnotism
* Interrogation
* Language
* Listening
* Negotiation tactics
* Objection handling
* Propaganda
* Problem-solving
* Public speaking
* Questioning
* Using repetition
* Resisting persuasion
* Self-development
* Sequential requests
* Storytelling
* Stress Management
* Tipping
* Using humor
* Willpower

Principles

+ Principles

Explanations

* Behaviors
* Beliefs
* Brain stuff
* Conditioning
* Coping Mechanisms
* Critical Theory
* Culture
* Decisions
* Emotions
* Evolution
* Gender
* Games
* Groups
* Habit
* Identity
* Learning
* Meaning
* Memory
* Motivation
* Models
* Needs
* Personality
* Power
* Preferences
* Research
* Relationships
* SIFT Model
* Social Research
* Stress
* Trust
* Values

Theories

* Alphabetic list
* Theory types

And

About
Guest Articles
Blog!
Books
Changes
Contact
Guestbook
Quotes
Students
Webmasters

 

| Home | Top | Menu | Quick Links |

© Changing Works 2002-
Massive Content — Maximum Speed